There are insights, then there’s real insight – the value of independent review
2004 was not a year of pandemic, nor of global financial crises, but it was a truly difficult year for a group of financial professionals. In this blog we ask a simple question – could their truly difficult year have been avoided?
Here I look closely at a major trading desk fraud and interview a senior risk executive at the heart of the investigation. One major failing was a lack of effective oversight and particularly some independent review which could have detected the issues well before they detonated.
So what happened?
The 3rd year of the new millennium began with few ominous portents. The Rover lander was settling itself delicately on Mars, a last VW Beetle had rolled off its production line in Puebla, Mexico, and decision-makers in the United States, having chosen to invade Iraq did not appear intent on doubling down on their chase for weapons of destruction, mass or otherwise; financial markets were simply dozing.
Becalmed in the charm of early-year, the S&P 500 had drifted quietly from 1112 and would fail to crack 1200 until December, ten-year US paper opened at 4.25% and would end the year a mere 2 basis-points lower; currency markets snoozed.
Yet, for a relatively small group of Australian financial markets executives 2004 would be a truly defining year.
At 1:53 pm on January 13th the then largest of Australia’s financial services leviathans made a startling market announcement on the Australian Stock Exchange; its risk teams had identified “losses relating to unauthorised trading” and that immediate action had been taken to close out and therefore “minimise any further losses being incurred.” The Bank did venture a little further, curtly confirming that losses were “not expected to exceed $180 million.”
For those whose year the announcement would define the shock of such a short statement must have come as a mixed blessing; the announcement was brief, the loss seemed contained, could there be much more to see and hear on the matter? Would there more to it?
And of course, the answer was yes, a great deal more.
Beyond wild estimate the ultimate cost to the long-proud firm is impossible to calculate, but we know today that it was more than the $180 million posted in that first ASX announcement. It is very hard to account for the costs of a disrupted business and the lost custom that comes when normal offerings are curtailed by regulatory order. Increased capital charges can easily be estimated, but what of distracted management and teams, and what happens when a full-service business can’t offer a full suite of products to customers? Will risk-managing customers wait until you’ve regained composure?
What we can say is that in less than a month the firm in question conceded that the loss was double that conceded in the original announcement. Double. How was that possible? We can’t be sure.
Within six months the firm exchanged its CEO and Chair, sacked the traders deemed responsible, sacked or forced the resignation of eight senior staff, disciplined or moved on 17 others - and carried through on a plan to restructure its board.
What went wrong?
The cheeky answer is lots, but since the prudential regulator devoted undivided attention to the irregular activity and losses it’s perhaps best to let their catalogue of the problems identified stand. In their report on the matter, we find the following:
traders choosing to conceal their true positions;
missed opportunities to detect and close down the irregular activity;
expressions of concern by counterparties at large ignored (by management);
collusive behaviour of the traders involved succeeded in suppressing many of the bank’s early warning signals; and
Line Management turned a blind eye to known risk management concerns.
Which points to too many things for one blog post to mention, but in trying to answer our question (could this have been avoided?) we’ve turned to a former senior risk executive whose intimate familiarity with this story remains very real after seventeen years.
Former Senior risk executive involved in the investigation –
I was involved as a risk executive and dealt with the desk involved. As the APRA review found, I attempted to bring the problem to the attention of senior and executive management, however my concerns were ignored.
Eventually, they were considering moving me away from my position. I was compromised and warned them that without an independent review the desk situation would end disastrously.
Once I stepped away from my duties there was no one of any experience closely monitoring the desk activity.
We asked for his opinion on another simple question – could independent review have made a difference in unveiling the irregular behaviour?
Former Senior risk executive again –
An independent review of that desk at that time may well have allowed genuine discovery.
When management and staff in the depths of any business are blind to fraudulent activities, independent reviewers have the capacity to provide frank and factual advice to senior management and the board.
Independent reviewers bring a fresh set of eyes to issues that are complex in nature and clouded in “noise” and jargon. An independent review dispenses with reporting alignment, routine familiarity and complacency. Independent reviews can highlight deficiencies in reporting requirements and shine a light on those who should have known better.
I truly believe that if this style independent review had been conducted then 2004 would have been a better year.
What’s clear as we look back through the records since this story first emerged is that it’s worth thinking about the right questions and it’s worth thinking about discovery.
Is that business unit, that desk, doing what you expect it to?
Is it aligned to your strategy and complementing the wider business?
Is it conforming to regulator expectations – and the letter of the law?
An independent review can assist with this discovery and help uncover potential issues that may have been overlooked previously.
Supervision of Markets businesses – the independent review
The previous blog on 10 August 2021 looked at some of the measures we use to establish the performance of desks and larger units in market businesses. We use a range of calculations from readily available data to establish the type of desk and therefore the expected performance. In some cases, this aligns well with the expected strategy while at other times it may not!
This blog looks at the ways the performance reviews can assist managers and senior managers.
Effective supervision
The actual performance and sources of revenue are sometimes difficult to uncover using established processes. Put simply, some experienced staff can find very effective ways to disguise the true strategies to create revenue when oversight processes are well understood and any gaps are well known. This can be as benign as internal arbitrage, exploiting a monopoly or a dominant market position. In other cases, the revenue is derived from ‘scope creep’ where the original purpose of the desk has drifted over time to follow other strategies without explicit agreement from managers.
Alternatively, this can result less innocent practices such as fraud. There have been a number of well documented cases where knowledge of internal oversight practices can enable fraudulent activity.
Regulatory supervision such as the Senior Manager Regime (SMR, UK) and Bank Executive Accountability Regime (BEAR, Australia) have increasingly focussed on effective oversight from senior managers who are expected to be informed about the businesses under their control. Unless senior managers take reasonable steps to understand and test businesses under their supervision the regulatory system may find them responsible for any problems.
The challenge for senior managers is how to get information and analysis on their supervised businesses.
Independent review
Independent review is an important method for gathering information by looking at existing processes with new insights. The usual internal reviews are not simply re-used and adapted slightly for the current focus areas of the business. Rather a different approach is typically employed by independent reviewers which can add to the information generated from the regular oversight.
In addition to new ways of looking at existing businesses, an independent firm will not have the restrictions which can be problematic for staff members. Internal oversight can often follow a very predictable path which has been established for some time. Lack of time and a focus for efficiencies can leave businesses using analysis and oversight practices which are out of date and/or without review.
Internal relationships and politics can also make reviews difficult for staff. Who wants to create internal resentment and additional work?
Independent firms are not aligned with internal parties and bring external experiences to the review process which can provide different and unique insights. It is this approach which can greatly assist senior managers demonstrate effective oversight.
Changes over time
Most desks change their trading and sales approach over time to suit changes in market conditions and customers. This is normal and expected. But is the current strategy and performance still within the expectations of senior management?
Our independent performance reviews look at these changes over time. The product mix, customers, trading patterns and key days are all analysed for their impact on revenue and whether they have adjusted to different trading conditions.
For example, the relative use of linear and non-linear products is quite dependent on market volatility and direction: is this reflected in the desk performance? Is there preference for a desk to be ‘long’ or ‘short’? This can be quite indicative of trading strategies and often the use of the balance sheet advantages to augment revenue.
Does being in the office or working remotely matter?
This section of any review is relatively new because pre-COVID, working remotely was very rare for trading and sales staff. But now it is a reality for many businesses with all or part of the desk regularly working from home.
In the highly scrutinised environment of a trading room, oversight is clear and immediate. Despite the increasing use of monitoring software for computers and other devices, it is much easier for staff to use unauthorised information sources to assist in trading and sales. A private phone or tablet is very much ‘off the grid’ and cannot be effectively banned from a home office in the way they can from the trading room.
If there has been a change in trading or sales approach (and this can be very subtle) it can often be detected in the change of performance from in-office to remote location.
This is one test we have recently added to the review based on changing market conditions.
Effective and demonstrable oversight
The focus of the performance review is to provide a view of the past, current and change in desk performance and strategy of desks. The independent review does not replace the internal reviews: rather it is designed to compliment them by adding a different analysis of the same data.
The obligations on senior managers for effective and demonstrable oversight can better met with this combination of internal and periodic external review.
Summary
An independent performance review of a desk or small combination of desks is where the Martialis approach makes most impact.
Many reviews are done across wide businesses and focus on opportunities and risks for those businesses.
We look at the micro level. Close, forensic investigation of desk performance can assist senior managers making strategic decisions on products and customer groups in the context of the whole business while providing clear evidence of effective supervision.
How do Markets desks really perform?
Almost every firm with a trading-desk capability periodically reviews the performance of their sales and trading teams. Typically, this is done using internal 2nd line (risk) and 3rd line (audit) resources at regular intervals following a routine process of checking controls and a range of related processes.
In many cases, underlying performance is not regularly compared with internal and external measures.
We have done some recent work to independently examine the performance of trading and sales teams at firms and arrived at some interesting results. The true source of revenue of certain desks was quite different to that assumed or expected by management, risk and audit.
In some cases, the daily analysis of the sources of revenue was not complete due to limited data sets while in other cases the analysis lacked critical components to highlight inefficient use of balance sheet and/or capital.
In other examples, analysis showed the expected changes to the capital calculations (FRTB and SA-CCR) will also impact the performance of Markets businesses. The efficient use of resources such as capital and balance sheet will be imperative for future profitability of desks and businesses.
Careful, independent analysis of performance is very effective in identifying changes to trading and sales strategies over time. When many firm’s staff are still operating out of the office environment, fully understanding these changes can prevent desks straying from the agreed strategies.
Strategy versus performance
It’s rare to find desks without a reasonably well defined strategy which is agreed with management and risk reflecting the preferred levels of customer engagement, trading performance and risk limits.
But are desks actually following the strategy? We have found some significant deviations from the strategy which can be found in the true performance of the desk. While this may not be a problem for an individual desk, it can lead to duplication and inefficient use of resources across a business.
Statistical analysis
An effective starting point for our performance analysis is a statistical analysis of the trading and sales results over a number of years. Key statistical parameters can be readily calculated from the daily P&L data which can then be aligned to the expected outcomes for desks with similar strategies.
Desks can be broadly classified as ‘flow’, ‘proprietary’ and ‘hybrid’. Although each desk is not uniquely one type only, they typically have strategies which place them predominately in one or the other. Each type has quite distinctive statistical markers which can be tested against the actual desk performance.
In a number of cases, we have found significant differences between the stated strategies of desks and the actual performance. In some cases, reviews have unearthed concerning patterns that lead to important questions and further investigation. This can better inform managers of the daily activity of their teams and help them align their business to their preferred goals.
Runs of positive performance
Long or short runs of positive performance are very insightful when combined with the type of desk and the statistical calculations for that desk. In some cases, long runs of positive P&L are expected while in other cases a more random dispersion of results is typical.
Anomalies in the expected performance runs can show either poor performance and/or the existence of internal or firm advantages. For example, significant balance sheet used to fund certain assets at comparatively cheap rates may be within the strategy of the desk; or it may not. Either way, the true performance might show inefficient or inappropriate use of cheap funding rates.
We have found this measure helps identify aspects of performance that can be compared with the desk strategy and expected performance.
Different time frames of reference
Most performance analysis is done on a monthly and annual basis. Budgets are set and monthly results are often used to identify and adjust expected targets across businesses for revenue, cost and capital.
While this is a perfectly reasonable management approach, we have found looking at performance on a more micro scale can yield significant information to better manage the monthly and annual performance as well as identify areas of improvement. In particular, the daily and weekly P&L data can be used to effectively identify these areas.
Potential misconduct?
While this is rare it still exists. In many of the public cases, ‘post-mortem’, detailed reviews of daily performance compared with the expected performance have shown that preemptive actions could have averted the fraud and saved considerable losses, reputations and remediation costs. We have all seen how modest business units have led to substantial losses far exceeding long-run profitability.
No manager (front office or risk) wants to find fraudulent activity and an independent review can uncover both potential and actual opportunities for unapproved trading that might otherwise remain hidden.
Summary
Martialis has skilled market professionals with significant experience in desk performance-analysis covering most asset classes and types of activity.
Although the emphasis is on improving efficiency though careful analysis to ensure resources are used according to the strategy, we have also found serious concerns about potential and real fraud.
Independence is key. A fresh look at familiar data and some different techniques of analysis can add significantly to the understanding of desk performances and, crucially help management unearth and understand anomalies.
The Potential Wall at Cessation
Is this the way LIBOR ENDS?
As we approach the date when pre-cessation triggers become effective for GBP, JPY and CHF the transition for derivatives subject to the ISDA Fallback Protocol or Supplement may face the impact of hitting a wall where the reference rate changes suddenly.
This has been written about previously at Clarus and by the Murex team and in Risk.net. Then it was a theoretical problem about revaluations and curve construction; now it looks very real! And rather ironically, when this potential issue was first raised, the wall looked like a cliff where there may be a sudden fall in reference rates over the cessation date whereas now it looks more likely there will be a sudden increase in rates.
In this blog I look at the GBP and USD markets and how they are predicting the reference rate changes from LIBOR to the ISDA Fallback Rate on 31st December 2021 and 30th June 2023 respectively.
LIBOR is not necessarily Risk Free Rate plus Spread Adjustment (Fallback Rate)
The ISDA Fallback Rate is the Adjusted Reference Rate plus the Spread Adjustment for the relevant tenor of that period of the trade. Although this is commonly applied in derivatives there is some use in other products such as loans and securities.
The Fallback Rate replaces LIBOR after the cessation date or the effective date of the pre-cessation announcement, in this case after 31 December 2021 for GBP (and other non-USD LIBORs) and 30 June 2023 for remaining USD LIBORs.
Note that the Fallback Rate is a replacement and is not required to equal LIBOR. The LIBOR on the last day will behave as LIBOR always has and be subject to issues of liquidity and credit which may not equal the 5-year median in the ISDA Spread Adjustment.
GBP on 31 December 2021
The table on the right is where the markets are at this time and where they are predicting LIBOR and the Fallback Rate may be on 31 December 2021.
The yellow highlights show the potential difference in the reference rate applied to contracts. The current differences are around 3 bps (1-month), 9 bps (3-month) and 23 bps (6-month).
If we look forward to the market prediction on 31 December 2021, the the differences are smaller but still there, respectively approximately -1 bps (1-month), 6 bps (3-month) and 19 bps (6-month). This indicates contracts with a cessation date for GBP LIBOR on 31 December 2021 could see a jump in rate on 3 January 2022.
But a word of caution, the Fallback Rate is only known at the end of the relevant period and could differ substantially from the market predicted rate.
Note: the forward OIS and LIBOR rates for GBP and USD are derived from futures prices. In particular, the USD 1 and 3-month LIBOR rates may be too low dues to ‘turn of year’ effects.
USD on 30 June 2023
A similar outcome emerges in the USD LIBOR which is destined for effective cessation on 30 June 2023. Again the yellow highlights show the differences now on those predicted on 30 June 2023.
The 1-month difference is relatively minor however there are more substantial predicted differences in the 3 and 6-month tenors.
Potential impacts
Costs for borrowers and returns for investors
the sudden change in rate will give a potentially large difference between the reference rate on 31 December 2021 and 3 January 2022
small mismatches in reset dates between exposure and hedge may create large accrual differences
Modelling the gap
such a discontinuous change in rates is notoriously difficult to model
many systems will attempt to create a smooth curve around the dates which can impact revaluations on many days either side of the change (see the Murex article)
Differences in outcomes
LIBOR fixes at the start of the period while Fallback Rate has daily fixes during the period
the actual outcome may differ from the projected outcome at the start of the period leading to accrual differences
Summary
I end this blog very simply: LIBOR is not the ISDA Fallback Rate and it may evolve differently to the market expectations.
Changes to liquidity and credit spreads will impact LIBOR and the final outcome may not be consistent with the 5-year median approach in the ISDA Spread Adjustment and therefore the Fallback Rate.
So monitor the markets and be prepared for a potential surprise on cessation dates!
And finally a reminder of how much the Spread Adjustment can vary under extreme conditions. This is the GBP 3-month for the year up to June 2020 through the COVID-19 time.
The 5-year median is 0.1193% bit the spread went to approximately 0.80% before falling to its present level.
Source: Bloomberg
FCA Consultation on Synthetic LIBOR - CP21/19 - June 2021
The demise of LIBOR has been well documented since July 2017 when Andrew Bailey, CEO of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) in the UK first announced possible cessation by the end of 2021. This set in train a number of actions by regulators and central banks globally to prepare for this momentous event.
On 5th March 2021, the FCA has made a pre-cessation announcement which will cause certain contracts to move to the fallbacks in the future. Specifically, the FCA announced the future loss of representativeness of certain LIBORs. The critical dates are 31st December 2021 for most LIBORs and 30th June 2023 for remaining USD LIBOR. The following diagram shows the timeline.
This announcement constitutes a pre-cessation trigger which is quite different to a permanent cessation of LIBOR. Only contacts with a pre-cessation clause will revert to fallbacks while those without the clause will continue referring to LIBOR (if it exists) or use their existing fallbacks.
The FCA intends to direct the current LIBOR administrator (using powers under Article 23D(2)) to continue to publish some LIBORs beyond December 2021 using a revised calculation methodology. This is often referred to as ‘synthetic LIBOR’. Contracts without the pre-cessation trigger look very likely to refer to synthetic LIBOR after December 2021.
Consultation CP21/19 was released in June 2021 and invites responses on the future of GBP and JPY synthetic LIBOR.
What is the FCA proposing?
The FCA are proposing a number of changes to GBP and JPY LIBORs. I will look at two of these in this blog:
1) The choice of rate; and
2) The choice of credit spread.
There are many other proposals in the consultation but these two have the potential to have significant impacts on anyone who remains on GBP or JPY LIBOR after December 2021 which will then be referring to synthetic LIBOR.
The choice of rate
The underlying rates are Term SONIA (provided by IBA) and TORF (provided by QBS). Both are forward-looking rates based on OIS quotes in the GBP and JPY markets each day.
Term SONIA is calculated from GBP (SONIA) OIS markets while TORF (Tokyo Risk Free Rate) is derived from the JPY (TONA) OIS market.
The FCA has already selected these rates and the consultation does not invite further discussion on this point.
The choice of credit spread
The FCA has made a recommendation as per the Table 1 below. Their preference is to align the credit spread with the ISDA spread adjustment published by Bloomberg (highlighted in bold).
However, the actual 5-year LIBOR - OIS credit spread (I added the the red box to highlight this) is quite different to the ISDA spread particularly for longer tenors. The choice of credit spread will have impacts on all users of synthetic LIBOR and needs to be carefully considered for a firm’s exposure and valuation.
While it is tempting to align the credit spread with ISDA (i.e. derivatives) this is not the actual, calculated 5 -year median of the LIBOR - OIS spread. By using ISDA, the implication is that the compounded OIS and the Term OIS are identical (i.e. OIS average settlement is zero over the 5 years) which is clearly not the case as seen in Table 1.
The fact that OIS trades do not settle at zero (averaged over 5 years) gives rise to this difference.
The choice of credit spread will have impacts on all users of syntheic LIBOR. Let’s look at a few example calculations.
Example calculations for GBP Synthetic LIBOR
The following table shows the impact for a GBP borrower using GBP 1 million and 1 billion notional.
Clearly, for a borrower using the ISDA spread is disadvantageous compared with the actual LIBOR -OIS spread. However, this analysis is based on the Term SONIA and the compounded daily SONIA being equivalent rates at the end of each period. This is unlikely and needs to be appreciated in the calculations.
Also note that the calculations are symmetrically opposite for the investors: there could be an advantage for these users.
Even with the caveats related to Term SONIA and compounded daily SONIA, there is a real risk of a transfer of value from borrowers to investors using the ISDA spread. Over the 5 years of calculation, the actual LIBOR - OIS credit spread could be regarded as a more appropriate measure of the adjustment required and therefore able to minimise the value transfer.
Many portfolios are much greater than 1 million or 1 billion notional so the final impact could be very substantial.
A short comment on revaluations
Another complication is the impact on revaluations which arises from the choice of credit spread. Forward rates are calculated from the relevant OIS curves which means Term SONIA and compounded, daily SONIA are identical (also for TORF and TONA).
If the ISDA and synthetic LIBOR credit spreads are different (i.e. LIBOR - OIS ) then the present value of trades linked to synthetic LIBOR and derivatives will be different if valued on the same curve. This would create a revaluation difference if the same curves are used for derivative and synthetic LIBOR valuations. Users should take care to separate the trades and assign the correct curve to each.
Summary
The FCA consultation will have impacts on users of synthetic LIBOR. There may be value transfer based on the choice of credit spread which could be substantial for some users.
I encourage everyone to look carefully at the proposals and analyse the potential impacts on your portfolios which may refer to synthetic LIBOR after December 2021.
Martialis has substantial experience in these calculations. We can assist you in this analysis and provide an independent review of your options.
New Developments in USD Reference Rates
The rise of new, credit sensitive benchmarks in USD presents users with a range of options which may better suit their purposes. As markets begin to move away from USD LIBOR there has been some resistance to using a single reference rate such as SOFR. The pricing challenges of switching from the familiar processes of LIBOR to a new rate with little (or no) credit and liquidity margin as well as the operational challenges of using a rate like SOFR (where the final reference is only known at the end of the relevant period) has presented many users with a good reason to delay transitioning away from LIBOR. The SOFR alternatives actually operate similarly to LIBOR and help solve many of the operational issues. They include:
Reference Rate Administrator Description (all forward-looking term rates)
Term SOFR CME Calculated from CME SOFR futures and possibly OIS, no credit spread
BSBY Bloomberg Calculated from bank funding in unsecured markets
CRITS/CRITR IHS Markit Calculated from USD CD and CP market (‘S’ is Spread and ‘R’ is Rate)
IBYI ICE Similar to BSBY and has been puiblished for over 2 years
AXI SOFR Academy Calculated from credit spreads out to 5 yeears which is then scaled to 1, 3 and 6 month
While all these alternatives have a term structure and most have a credit spread (except Term SOFR) they are all subtly different and some may be more appropriate for certain uses rather than others.
The advantage of all is that they are operationally similar to LIBOR (set at the start of the relevant period) and have a term structure. This makes them all easier to implement in current systems and processes and allows many users access to LIBOR replacements.
The markets will decide which reference rates dominate but these are significant contributors to LIBOR transition. Risk.net has a great article on the alternatives here.
Martialis is very experienced in managing LIBOR transition for many clients. These new reference rates may be appropriate for your needs and we can assist in assessing the options.